In his five-year forecast for U.S. containerized exports, Moreno said export growth will total an average of 2.4 percent, higher than the 1.6 percent growth from 2009 through 2013. The lion’s share of that growth, at least in the short run, will come from forest projects and other building materials exported to emerging countries, but other commodities could help as well.
“I am also on the watch for an upturn in exports of capital goods, provided the strengthening of the U.S. dollar does not put U.S.-made equipment out of reach,” Moreno said.
A slowing world economy and extreme drought conditions in California have hurt U.S. containerized exports, which have dropped 0.7 percent in the first half of 2014 as compared to the first half of 2013. Moreno's projection was thusly downgraded, from 1.8 percent growth to a negative 0.6 percent growth for 2014. But for 2015, Moreno's forecast tells a different and more positive story.
For 2015, he said he is raising his outlook to 3.3 percent growth from 2.6 percent in 2014, “owing to expectations for increased expenditures on construction and improved demand in Asia and Europe," Moreno said.
The U.S. dollar will likely strengthen, Moreno added, raising prices for foreign buyers of U.S. goods. Because of the extreme drought in the California, this year, agricultural exports will be in reduced supply, also causing prices to rise.
The slowdown in global manufacturing is expected to continue, so Moreno said he expects to see further declines in wastepaper exports, metal scrap, cotton and other commodities.
"I am also less optimistic about containerized auto exports for the near-term, even as there are increasingly more vehicles available for export," Moreno said.
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2014 global growth projection from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent in its July update. The revision reflects first quarter weakness in the U.S. economy, since reversed, caused by a harsh winter and significant inventory overhang. There are also subdued expectations in the emerging markets sector, including China, India, Russia and Brazil, Moreno said.
The disappointing performance is temporary, however, the IMF said. It has predicted economic growth of 4 percent for 2015.
